UNLV CBER "Midyear Economic Outlook 2009"

Yesterday I attend economic seminar by UNLV CBER(University of Nevada Las Vegas, the Center for Business & Economic Research) at Mirage Casino Hotel.

The CBER's Clark county's economic forecast for 2009 & 2010 is as follows.
　　　　 2009 　　　　　　　2010
Employment　　　　　　　　869,500(-5%) 　　877,500(+0.9%)
Housing permit 　　　　　 5,480(-55.8%) 　　　5,800(+5.8%)
Gaming Revenue($ m) 　9,550(-2.5%)　　　　 9,840(+3.0%)
Personal Income($ b) 　 　　75.3(-2.5%)　　　　 78.7(+4.5%)
Population(k)　　　　　　　　　1,978(-0.4%)　　　 1,999(+1.1%)
Visitor(k)　　　　　 38,868(+3.7%) 　　41,084(+5.7%)
Rooms available　　　　　　143,757(+2.3%) 　　152,881(+6.3%)

Las Vegas economy has to face downward economy in 2nd half of this year too, but, according to them, we will be able to see a recovery from next year , although they warn us that recovery will not be "V shape" or "U shape", but "Lazy LV shape". Long negative & flat growth, and then very moderate growth will come.

As far as I am involved with construction industry, I don't see any sign of recovery in the industry yet. I hope stimulus money push up construction demand artificially, but amount of money to Nevada is very small. Stimulus money might offset another decrease of demand. I feel this tunnel will be very long.

City Center will be open this year. It might be good news for Las Vegas, but it means Las Vegas will have another thousand of rooms. Will new room be absorbed by increase of visitor ? When will brave gaming company come back to Las Vegas to develope new property ?